# Baseline: Demographics → log(REER) — Level

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1: Z (no BS control) | log_reer_combined | 3,044 | 100 | -0.015 |
| A2: Z + BS (log GDP/pc) | log_reer_combined | 3,017 | 99 | 0.012 |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | log_reer_combined | 2,598 | 90 | -0.023 |
| A4: Z + BS + health | log_reer_combined | 2,332 | 98 | -0.013 |
| A5: age ratios + BS | log_reer_combined | 3,017 | 99 | 0.024 |
| A6: OECD Z + BS | log_reer_combined | 1,161 | 37 | -0.073 |
| A7: non-OECD Z + BS | log_reer_combined | 1,856 | 62 | -0.006 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1: Z (no BS control) | Z_1 | -1.0392 | 0.4081 | 0.0109 | ** |
| A1: Z (no BS control) | Z_2 | 0.1454 | 0.0596 | 0.0147 | ** |
| A1: Z (no BS control) | Z_3 | -0.0056 | 0.0024 | 0.0185 | ** |
| A2: Z + BS (log GDP/pc) | Z_1 | -1.2411 | 0.3730 | 0.0009 | *** |
| A2: Z + BS (log GDP/pc) | Z_2 | 0.1619 | 0.0539 | 0.0027 | *** |
| A2: Z + BS (log GDP/pc) | Z_3 | -0.0060 | 0.0021 | 0.0052 | *** |
| A2: Z + BS (log GDP/pc) | log_gdp_pc | 0.0452 | 0.0150 | 0.0025 | *** |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | Z_1 | -1.6238 | 0.4107 | 0.0001 | *** |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | Z_2 | 0.2229 | 0.0593 | 0.0002 | *** |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | Z_3 | -0.0086 | 0.0024 | 0.0003 | *** |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | log_gdp_pc | 0.0914 | 0.0166 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A3: Z + BS + trade | trade_openness | -0.0016 | 0.0001 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A4: Z + BS + health | Z_1 | -1.4941 | 0.3819 | 0.0001 | *** |
| A4: Z + BS + health | Z_2 | 0.2029 | 0.0546 | 0.0002 | *** |
| A4: Z + BS + health | Z_3 | -0.0077 | 0.0022 | 0.0003 | *** |
| A4: Z + BS + health | log_gdp_pc | 0.0490 | 0.0155 | 0.0016 | *** |
| A4: Z + BS + health | health_exp_gdp | 0.0000 | 0.0036 | 0.9918 |  |
| A5: age ratios + BS | old_dep | 0.0132 | 0.1504 | 0.9299 |  |
| A5: age ratios + BS | youth_dep | 0.3062 | 0.0747 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A5: age ratios + BS | log_gdp_pc | 0.0516 | 0.0150 | 0.0006 | *** |
| A6: OECD Z + BS | Z_1 | 0.8869 | 0.7816 | 0.2567 |  |
| A6: OECD Z + BS | Z_2 | -0.1059 | 0.1057 | 0.3168 |  |
| A6: OECD Z + BS | Z_3 | 0.0032 | 0.0040 | 0.4168 |  |
| A6: OECD Z + BS | log_gdp_pc | 0.1819 | 0.0325 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A7: non-OECD Z + BS | Z_1 | -1.2871 | 0.4806 | 0.0075 | *** |
| A7: non-OECD Z + BS | Z_2 | 0.1656 | 0.0712 | 0.0201 | ** |
| A7: non-OECD Z + BS | Z_3 | -0.0060 | 0.0029 | 0.0395 | ** |
| A7: non-OECD Z + BS | log_gdp_pc | 0.0335 | 0.0196 | 0.0885 | * |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*